When Trump starts to purge the officer corps of the military is a critical moment. Once he has full control over the military, a civil war becomes unlikely.

The democrats have failed repeatedly to convince the American people of an alternative vision for the future. Obama provided a vision, but the execution fell short. Not Trump wasn’t good enough of an idea.

The threats to annex Canada and Greenland are the bigger breaches of trust than the moves around Ukraine.

If Trump manages to remove all non loyal officers, an invasion of Canada, Mexico, and Greenland is in the cards over the next two or three years even.

The chance of the US military fracturing and a resulting civil war is non zero, if the purge of anti MAGA officers fails. California on its own has major bases for the navy, air force, and marines.

An American civil war would leave the US unable to respond strongly to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. China could use that opportunity to take the whole first island chain even.